DOW still Up. EURUSD sold off but news not all that bad. I don't see regime change as being bad...

Heck we have big bull market rally under Obama.  Who would have though.

Going to take the chance and go long $AUDUSD here @ 0.9058 after a bounce off the 38.2 retracement level hoping that or the wkly piv S2 will hold.  If not there then the 23.6 retracement.  Still using the fibs from yesterday, May 5th big move.

As I am typing this we AUDUSD have moved below weekly S2.  $DOW moved down to -1.  Will be reconsidering bias.

Failed to close candle on 15 min chart above the 61.8% retrace.

I believe it's more of a short term pullback. Slight pullback in $DOW futures, a pause in the $EURUSD at the weekly piv S3 and 23.6% fib retracement level also.   My new scared cat trading prod me to sell though.  My new account balance doesn't allow me to be brave trader.  Thinking of re-entering on dip to some sort of support level or it may just have to leave me.

If an increase in month to month growth cannot be spun as good then the people who has been ....

$AUDUSD Either the numbers being digest still or not bad relevant to stop the rally. $DOW fut. still up. $EURUSD not falling. The SPIN

If an increase in month to month growth cannot be spun as good then the people who has been spinning the rally all year must have been fired and taken away from the being near internet or media. 

Australian retail sales growth for Mach grew 0.3% as opposed to analyst estimate of 0.5%. 
Let me begin the SPIN
Considering present conditions, any growth is good growth.

So now we had that pull back from the 50% retracement back to the zero %, previous support

Usually if we were in any kind of positive market for the US if would have been an easy decision to go long.  Now it's questionable as we start wondering if folks are willing to take the risk and put the money in EUR or USD. 


Chart says play double bottom bounce. US market down is that a good move?

Is this bearish for the moment. The trend for the US market seems to be up,

Could this area be an area for tecnical retracement ?

EURUSD (EUR/USD) Cautiously bearish.

Something that bugged me about last weeks run up in the EURUSD was the fact that we all knew that even this weekend's agreement is not a real agreement because while German prime minister says she will put her full support behind it, it will be a challenge as she takes it back to her parliment to be voted on. She will be doing this on Friday. I guess instead of it having the big gap like last time when the first EU and IMF agreement was made on the Sunday; they ran it up last week and today should have a smaller gap.

If history repeats itself then we should have a selloff as the agreement is just like the previous agreement. Germany is still not in. The prime minister has to take it back to parliment and have it voted on and then there are a bunch of German professors threatening to file law suite if it goes through.

So there is still uncertainty about the whole deal that should prevent the EURUSD from rallying a whole lot and a selloff of any rally.

So depending on how her presentation to parliment seems we will know if it's a big rally or big sell off.

I was asked by a member of another board where I sometimes post "K__ how you doing so far with the trading?"

I didn't end the week well. My bad habbits crept back in and had the better of me. I went short EURUSD as a quick trade. Was profitable net 25 pips. Had a tgt close and take profit @ 30 pips. It reversed at 25 pips. I had 3 Short USDEUR positions and 1 EURGBP to hedge. Generally this trade works but on Thursday the GBP rallied harder than the EUR. I got a GBPUSD as additional hedge but cut eventually when it was moving too slow upwards. What I should have cut was the EURGBP but it had a huge loss at the time and for some reason I had a problem cutting losers thursday.

Friday during the European session open the EURUSD continued to rally. I was down net 400+ pips and pretty much overleveraged. I lost the 86% growth to the account I had accumilated since April 1st. I decided to close all postions and reversed to the long side as I should have done Thursday. I did then it moved against me. I closed for 2 pip loss. I reversed back to the short side and closed for a 17 pip loss on 2 positions.

I decided at that point to rethink my strategy because I knew better and my analysis was right but I just was not trading with my analysis. I was looking at the trend seeing that it was up but yet remained short hoping instead of trading what I say. I was clearly sabotaging my wealth. I knew that's what I was doing but remained paralyzed in stopping. It was totally an emotional thing. The bad thing is during the trades that I lost money on they were net successful between 10 - 25 pips at some point but something kept prevented me from taking the profit.

I took a break went to sleep got up and made a couple small trades and net 30 pips.

So while analysis can be very important, it is more important to have proper trade and account management. Make a set of rules and stick to them. Don't change a short term strategy to long term mid trade without making sure you've done the account risk management analysis first. Should be done before the trade is put on. That way I have a plan to cut back on the position size to make sure I am able to withstand the potential drawdown.