My attempt at doing some simple Wyckoff Charting. Nothing fancy. Just seeing if I can identify the simple phases
The view I"m looking at is that of a intermediate channel and with the assumption that some of the people who had some good market predictions since the recession that the market will hit 2300 before year end and also with the seasonality chart.
I am also considering the scenario where this is a longer bear market and that the 2015/09/17 reversal could be seen as a buying climax and we are now testing the high and should be reversing
Either view though, I chose I'm still expecting a decline somewhere in this area here up to 2032. Currently have IWM puts since it was the weaker in the decline last week and small caps usually get hit first in downturns.
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| Figure 2 - ES 2015/10/07 30 min chart. |
I bought the PUT when the first red volume candle after open was small but produced a bigger price move than the last green candle which had the highest volume since yesterday.
11:35 AM Daily PP here and it fell from S2 so pivot players would be buying here for quick bounce play. I should be bearing that in mind and close or hedge but I'll let it ride and see if my charting is any good.
11:52 AM Let's see if this PP reversal plays out.
12:02 PM Nice bounce off the PP area to the S1 area. Looking for it to fail S1 and continue with the downward move. IWM out-performed in SPY and DIA that bounce. It bounced more than 60% whereas SPY and DIA was about 30-40%. Since IWM is holding well then this can't be a really bearish future for the market. Someone said that it was being held up by strong biotech. I'll give it time and see if my scenario play out.
