update to those Greek plays

I talked about in previous posts. The Greeks have gotten some loans in place for them to use if needed. All the stocks mentioned are up except for 1.
Checking my yahoo where I keep track of them. http://kijar.blogspot.com/2010/02/toying-with-some-greek-investment-idea.html Some of the stocks might have been referred to in posts elsewhere but instead of me going to the different posts to update I'll just do it here.
Click Picture to see Bigger and Clearer table

Something on the lighter side in DC. Very Funny - Comedian Joe Wong at RTCA Dinner

What was I looking at when I went short the EUR\USD at 15:50

I was looking at the 50% Fib and a resistance zone. The EUR\USD been down all day and then took off and seemed like it didn't have anymore steam taking too long to continue those aggressive move it moved up with. I also looked at another chart and saw the same candlestick pattern before the 2 previous big moves. I then switched to the 5 min chart and shorted on the second down candle.

EUR/USD 2010-03-17 03:84 Chart

EUR/USD violating that resistance area. Area was tested a few times in Feb and on the 12th of March and Yesterday and it finally breaking through tonight in the European Premarket session. That was a good setup area to play. Had consolidation and coming off a strong day in the US session.

2010-03-16, Tue

Made 3 trades. 1 good. 1 loss, 1 b/e that could have been a winner if I didn't change my stop loss to a bigger profit target from my original analysis. All part of the game. Sometimes I think to yourself, I would have loved to be in on that big run but if I never let my target be big enough for the big run then I will never make that big profit. The lesson here today was that I saw the mode of the market and my original target was based on that.

USD.EUR 2010-03-14 Around 22:45 EST

2010-03-14, Sun

20:47 EST Long EUR 1.3759 tgt 1.3785, Trade supposed to be on the double bottom. It fell through the bottom though as soon as I placed order. I placed a market order and as down 6 pips as soon as the order was placed. EUR seemd to have formed a bottom and was starting a new uptrend so i put a stop at about 40 pips away. Not a good risk/reward. Need to make sure the bull candle is formed properly first also. Daily Pivot Point is at 1.3741.
09:34 EST, Down 15 points from entry. Waiting to be right. :-)
Earlier I was tempted to play the Double Top but held off because I said it was a bull trend and I am going to start trading with the trend instead of counter. Seemed that the short trade would have been good . Target would have been 15 pips but it fell 28 pips.
09:50 EST broke below PP down -23 pips, still letting the trade play out.
Before I entered the trade I did not take into consideration what the ES, YM, etc was doing. They were trading down up until 22:00 EST where they found support.

I made the stop that low because entering the trade I was confident that there will be a reversal but still to the upside and wasn't worried about a stop but on second thought it doesn't seem like a good idea. When I had done my analysis I figured that there were many support points around the pivot and then below that was the area I lable Second support. I chose to put it slightly below the S1 pivot.

21:45 Considering whether I should double down if we get to the are that was the major support that I labeled second support.

23:45 EST Second support area at 1.3725 is being tested. Down 32 pips on the position. Next major support area would be at the WP 1.3658 which is 60 pips away. Not willing to risk that much pips. Below that we have 1.3688 which is also a S2 pivot.

EUR/USD 2010-03-12 11:24 Chart

chart showing resistance where I went

short this morning after big spike up.

USD.EUR 2010-02-26

was checking out the EUR going long where the EUR seem to be bouncing off the 200 DEMA and R1. Seem 200 DEMA since yesterday been acting as support

ES 2010-02-24

Toying with some Greek investment idea to see if there is the possible outcome as we did with US crisis

Toying with the idea of investing in Greek companies to see if there are bargain on good companies to be had kinda similar to how it was with the crash here in the US and the bounce and. I pretty much missed out on that whole rally because I refused to believe in it or just investing in the wrong instruments. Often time I would be in options and those didn't work in my favor as I would often be too early. Longer term options were too expensive and during the time I didn't think the rally would have doubled, trippled or quadrupled for some stocks as it ended up doing.

So based on that lesson I am going to look for some Greek companies and I know there are others out there that will have the same ideas so I will look for their ideas also

Came up with Helenic Telecommunications (NYSE:OTE) which is a Greek telecom company that pays 7% div,
Research on OTE lead me to a recommendation of OTE, National Bank of Greece (NYSE:NBG) and Coco Cola Bottling Helena (NYSE:CCH) by James Altucher, managing dir at Formula Cap on CNBC Fri Feb 12, 2010. I am also finding other recommendations for these same 3 stocks.

Chart of Market and enlarged YM 1day 15min 200 period support

Arbitration play CYCL

Here is an arbitration play. It's one of those plays that you can say is almost guaranteed money.CYCL stock is being bought by ATT for $8.50 and the stock is currently trading 7.60. The purchase should closed in the 3rd quarter accourding to ATT. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090708/us_at...tion.html?.v=1You even add a little extra money to the trade while you wait by buying lots of 100 shares and write/selling calls against the shares. This will bring in extra income.

I sold this time for a profit.

Friday after the market rally near close I decided to buy some DIA puts near close. It was up and I decided with all the run up that week the market needed to pull back some because too many people got caught short. Too many people are going to take profits. Then crisis is still not over and the market had rallied too far too fast in 1 week. The crisis in Europe was still there and I don't think they would have showed the same excitement for GOOG as the US market did.

Saturday I messed up my computer when I tried to update the BIOS from XP. Monday I woke up and them market was down. So I jumped into my daughters room on her computer to see if I could close the position but could get into the account. I have Linux on her box. Not fully configured to do some of the windows stuff (dont want her downloading too much stuff). I guess I could have called it in but I also wanted to monitor the trade to see
I could get the next best sell price.

I got to working on that machine. I got into the brokers webtrade. I noticed that at the the puts had trade as high as +$0.60 per contract (+ in front of the number means a profit) and was not trading at +$0.30. Do I sell or do I let it ride to see if I the market going to go back down. So I decide to let it ride. Ok. 1- 2pm I got the box up to where I can get a semi decent chart. Now the position is down. -$0.50. Ok. Let the trade develop. Sentiments not that bullish anymore. I have time before expiration. I spent the rest of the day trying to get the box more decent to where I can get a better chart for the next day.

Today Tuesday, I logged on check the charts market falling down. I am tempted to sell. Go on my favorite chat and read some of the other traders analysis. Decided to hold on till the market came down as most of the respected ones on there were betting on it falling. Market fell DIA fell more than $1.50 at which point my position was near its max. The bid/ask was +$1.00/+$1.10. Then the market start bottoming and then slowly drifting up at which point I was drawing my support resistance lines and saying if it breaks above this line I am selling and if it falls again. I will cuss for missing the party if it rallies but I will not watch this profit turn into a loss again. Near 2:00pm the stock move above the resistance and I sold and locked in +$0.60. I ran some errands after than and when I came back later after 5pm, the position would have been negative again if I held.

SELL SELL SELL!!! Learning the sell lesson again at the school of hard knocks

Took a hit last Thursday in 3 of my accounts. I had trading put on another QQQQ spread and kept the DIA spread I had before. I went all out near closing in another account on some Apr DIA 127 PUTS expiring Friday. The trade was that I would be out by 4:15pm before GOOG released earnings. Generally when it's a big company whose news can affect the market people sell the market off just before the news. DIA trades options trades until 4:15 pm. So at 4:10 I am up nicely on those PUTS. I am wresting with whether I should just take the profit and run then boom GOOG released news. At I hear on the news they beat. Instead of me selling then I hesitated to get more clarification and by that time I watched my profit of $0.70 per contract turned into $0.35 per contract loss and instead of me selling then. I hesitated till 4:15 pm. Ding can't sell anymore. Next day, Friday and expiration. Market opens up high. DIA @ > 128. Options worth $0.40. I still didn't sell. THen they dwindle down to $0.05 Still didn't sell. Lost all that money.

Another hard knocks lesson re-learned. Sell! Sell! Sell! You can never go broke from taking profits early. You can be in the game if you don't lose money. If you are losing money. Cut your losses quickly, especially on high risk trades. Always have an exit strategy and follow it. Use stop loss on high risk trades whenever possible.

List of ETFs

QLD - Nasdaq Ultra Long ETF (2x), if you betting going up
QID - Nasdaq Ultra Short ETF (2x), if you betting going down
DDM - Dow 30 Ultra Long (2x), if you betting going up
DXD - Dow 30 Ultra Short (2x), if you betting going down
SSO - S&P 30 Ultra Long (2x), if you betting going up
SDS - S&P 30 Ultra Short (2x), if you betting going down
SAA - Ultra S&P SmallCap600 ProShares
SBB - Short S&P SmallCap600 ProShares
FXI - iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index
FXP - UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25
URE - Ultra Real Estate ProShares
SRS - UltraShort Real Estate ProShares
UYM - Ultra Basic Materials ProShares
SMN - UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares
USD - Ultra Semiconductor ProShares
SSG - UltraShort Semiconductor ProShares
UGE - Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares
SZK - UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares
UCC - Ultra Consumer Services ProShares
SCC - UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares
SKF - UltraShort Financials ProShares
UYG - Ultra Financials ProShares
UCR - Macroshares Oil, if you betting going up
DCR - Macroshares Oil, if you betting going Down
DOG - Short Dow30 ProShares
DUG - UltraShort Oil and Gas Proshares