Still working on what to blog about

EDUCATION STUFF. LEARN STUFF Kinda Links

Most of the stuff I put up on this blog is actually stuff I use or will use so I put it here so it can be here even after my computer dies and also so I can get to it from where ever I am.

With a library of over 2,400 videos covering everything from arithmetic to physics, finance, and history and 125 practice exercises, we're on a mission to help you learn whatever you want, whenever you want, at your own pace.
http://www.khanacademy.org/

Dividend Paying stocks - Old list I need to revise

Here is an old list of div paying stocks also. It does need pruning as some companies may have stopped paying. I will have to revise it later. Just check the yield column to see which doesn't. Still do some research on those you think are interesting.

Some of the stocks may show no dividend but they do so just click on historical price and then select dividend only and it will show the last time they paid a dividend

http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/AAV,ASG,ACAS,ALD,AINV,BIF,BBK,CLM,CRF,CNSL,CEF,CRT,ERH,ERF,FGP,FRO,GAUBX,HMC,HYF,HYB,IGD,IGR,MTL,MMP,NCT,PPR,SCCO,PFN,PVX,PHK,PTY,RWT,RNE,RNP,RYN,STON,SFL,UL,VZ,ZMH/view/fv;_ylt=AmkfLI9E.bmULEGxEinJzBHkNbkF;_ylu=X3oDMTE1NDZjZjhwBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN5ZmlUYWJsaXN0BHNsawNmdW5kYW1lbnRhbHM-

here is another list.
This I got from DIV-InvestorPlace-Neil_George

A few more
Got from Div-InvestorPl-RichBand-low-risk

List of some Artist Playlist I want to go back and listen to

Reggae / Ska

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUnrSeAywdw&feature=BFa&list=AVGxdCwVVULXcBXze4mJVGgm9pLJJARQ-E&index=11

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OYI3mKpeqw&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6B3gRwq8_0&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSq93p68PDM&playnext=1&list=PLD58C575E8786B9AF

Websites with mixed CDs for free downloads
Mediaz Empire (reggae, soca, rap, r&b - http://www.mediaz-empire.com/category/mix-cds/

Playlist of some of my FAVORITE Blues Song

Here is a playlist of some of my Favorite Blues Songs
Just press play and it will play the songs one after the other.
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?p=PL158A5AFD4563F66E


Playlist includes
Muddy Waters and Johnny Winter - Mannish Boy

I was looking at some break dance clips and thinking this generation is viscious

I was looking at some break dance clips and thinking this generation is viscious This kid is wicked. On a whole different plan than everyone else. Dude so strong and full of energy.

Video I want to check back on now on then. "Stop Hunting."

Something I've done but didn't think of making it a stronger part of my trading ritual.

Check out this long tail wick and resistance from hammer

so that long tail doji signalled the sell
also the candle after wsa a bearish engulfing
and it could be seen as an evening star
so we had 3 bear signals there
With the tail of the doji being the resistance.

Risk aversion still the play of the day.

>

JPY and USD rallies after lunch break. Risk aversion still the play of the day.

ES Bounced off the Pivot but ...

Bounced of the Pivot but it's been failing the 200ema so we I'll wait for further confirmation to take a long position. Because of time of day there is no need to rush the trade. It's lunch time or shortly after so we have time to wait for further development

BP chart. BP had couple nice setups for going both long and short. I have a short position which I am playing around.

It opened gap down then would retrace at least 50%.  Today it retraced more than the days gap but also previous day's gap.  Went all the way up to R3 where it reversed.  Today's chart showed where the 50 period Moving average was support on the way up and once price crossed over it became resistance as the price moved down.

DOW still Up. EURUSD sold off but news not all that bad. I don't see regime change as being bad...

Heck we have big bull market rally under Obama.  Who would have though.

Going to take the chance and go long $AUDUSD here @ 0.9058 after a bounce off the 38.2 retracement level hoping that or the wkly piv S2 will hold.  If not there then the 23.6 retracement.  Still using the fibs from yesterday, May 5th big move.

As I am typing this we AUDUSD have moved below weekly S2.  $DOW moved down to -1.  Will be reconsidering bias.

Failed to close candle on 15 min chart above the 61.8% retrace.

I believe it's more of a short term pullback. Slight pullback in $DOW futures, a pause in the $EURUSD at the weekly piv S3 and 23.6% fib retracement level also.   My new scared cat trading prod me to sell though.  My new account balance doesn't allow me to be brave trader.  Thinking of re-entering on dip to some sort of support level or it may just have to leave me.

If an increase in month to month growth cannot be spun as good then the people who has been ....

$AUDUSD Either the numbers being digest still or not bad relevant to stop the rally. $DOW fut. still up. $EURUSD not falling. The SPIN

If an increase in month to month growth cannot be spun as good then the people who has been spinning the rally all year must have been fired and taken away from the being near internet or media. 

Australian retail sales growth for Mach grew 0.3% as opposed to analyst estimate of 0.5%. 
Let me begin the SPIN
Considering present conditions, any growth is good growth.

So now we had that pull back from the 50% retracement back to the zero %, previous support

Usually if we were in any kind of positive market for the US if would have been an easy decision to go long.  Now it's questionable as we start wondering if folks are willing to take the risk and put the money in EUR or USD. 


Chart says play double bottom bounce. US market down is that a good move?

Is this bearish for the moment. The trend for the US market seems to be up,

Could this area be an area for tecnical retracement ?

EURUSD (EUR/USD) Cautiously bearish.

Something that bugged me about last weeks run up in the EURUSD was the fact that we all knew that even this weekend's agreement is not a real agreement because while German prime minister says she will put her full support behind it, it will be a challenge as she takes it back to her parliment to be voted on. She will be doing this on Friday. I guess instead of it having the big gap like last time when the first EU and IMF agreement was made on the Sunday; they ran it up last week and today should have a smaller gap.

If history repeats itself then we should have a selloff as the agreement is just like the previous agreement. Germany is still not in. The prime minister has to take it back to parliment and have it voted on and then there are a bunch of German professors threatening to file law suite if it goes through.

So there is still uncertainty about the whole deal that should prevent the EURUSD from rallying a whole lot and a selloff of any rally.

So depending on how her presentation to parliment seems we will know if it's a big rally or big sell off.

I was asked by a member of another board where I sometimes post "K__ how you doing so far with the trading?"

I didn't end the week well. My bad habbits crept back in and had the better of me. I went short EURUSD as a quick trade. Was profitable net 25 pips. Had a tgt close and take profit @ 30 pips. It reversed at 25 pips. I had 3 Short USDEUR positions and 1 EURGBP to hedge. Generally this trade works but on Thursday the GBP rallied harder than the EUR. I got a GBPUSD as additional hedge but cut eventually when it was moving too slow upwards. What I should have cut was the EURGBP but it had a huge loss at the time and for some reason I had a problem cutting losers thursday.

Friday during the European session open the EURUSD continued to rally. I was down net 400+ pips and pretty much overleveraged. I lost the 86% growth to the account I had accumilated since April 1st. I decided to close all postions and reversed to the long side as I should have done Thursday. I did then it moved against me. I closed for 2 pip loss. I reversed back to the short side and closed for a 17 pip loss on 2 positions.

I decided at that point to rethink my strategy because I knew better and my analysis was right but I just was not trading with my analysis. I was looking at the trend seeing that it was up but yet remained short hoping instead of trading what I say. I was clearly sabotaging my wealth. I knew that's what I was doing but remained paralyzed in stopping. It was totally an emotional thing. The bad thing is during the trades that I lost money on they were net successful between 10 - 25 pips at some point but something kept prevented me from taking the profit.

I took a break went to sleep got up and made a couple small trades and net 30 pips.

So while analysis can be very important, it is more important to have proper trade and account management. Make a set of rules and stick to them. Don't change a short term strategy to long term mid trade without making sure you've done the account risk management analysis first. Should be done before the trade is put on. That way I have a plan to cut back on the position size to make sure I am able to withstand the potential drawdown.

Still learning little nuances of the Forex Market. Assian session, European session, US session ...

Exerpts from my post chat session today
2:58 PM [ki] today I was down at least 60 pips in 5 positions at about the same time coming into the US session at about 5am to 6 am. I was basicall short the USD in most of my position except for one where I was short EURGBP.
2:59 PM [ki] Positions Long against USD were: L EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD. Was playing the gap.
3:04 PM [ki] When the US market opened the account recovered to break even and at 11:30 - 12:30 I was profitable by 30% of daily target. However I didn't take profit and watched it go neagative again where I was down in the account by 10% which is almost 50% of tgt
3:05 PM [ki] Currently I am up again by 30% of daily target. Waiting for position to develop as planned when I entered it last night. It's not easy waiting for position to develop under these circumstance
3:07 PM [ki] Especially after sitting through a drawdown of more than 30% of your account.
4:47 PM [ki] Need emotional break for a bit. Had 5 pos running since yest. eve. Closed my Short $EURGBP position for +27 pips profit, Closed my Long GBPUSD position for +75 pips profit. Currently have 3 positions still opened: 2 Long EURUSD and 1 Long AUDUSD.

My riding these big draw down lately has helped me to realize what some of these great traders go through while they wait for their positions to develop. Especially those guys in "The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History" by Gregory Zuckerman, whose positions moved against them while the subprime rally continued and they were almost wiped out or their investors pulling funds because the account is down just before or when the trade starts developing. Search Amazon.com for The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History

I believe the AUD position should rally when Austalian market open as it should follow the US market as the GS case seen as a non issue on the current market or economy. Last night when I entered the trade I thought the European market would have seen it that way but they didn't plus they have the issue of the vulcano ash that is crimpling their economy as far as air travels. Still learning little nuances of the Forex Market. Assian session, European session, US session all interpret the US news different. Seems the reaction to the news is exagerated as they try to figure out how the US market will react to it. Going into the US session if the interpretations and reactions are the same the move builds on it. If not the correction begins. I shall be testing on this assumption/observation. I say assumption also because sometimes the market can make you feel like is what you observe really what's going on.

My view on the GS, SEC CDS case

Fridays news with Goldman Saahs is bullshit IMO.
The way I'm looking at it is the SEC case is bullshit. It will probably get settled. The market was nervous and people was just waiting for some reason to sell. It was options expiration week and market had rallied substantially. It needed cooling down. They heard GS, SEC, and Sued in one sentence and they sold.

GS has returned substancially from the low. The range for the day was 155.55 - 186.41 and the close was 160.70. There has been a buy the dips attitude since the rally began last March. If earnings are good this quarter then I don't see why the attitude will change and so far Intel was good. So mantra is to keep doing what's working till it stops working.

My biggest problem with the case is that the transactions are between accredited institution investors who are supposed to be the smartest people on Wall Street with huge research teams. They made bad bets that's all. When the instruments that the SEC are talking about were created people betting against the sub prime were losing money on the bets and some people got wiped out or were near wiping out for betting againts the sub prime market too early. I found it hard to believe that these big banks selling the insurance policies that people would not default on their mortgages were a bunch of crazy people.

In a nutshell from what I gather from reading the book "The Greatest Trade Ever: The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History" and listening the interview Lahde on Financial Sense

The instrument in question is something called collateralized debt obligations(CDO) and Credit Default Swaps (CDS). CDO in a nutshell are loans. CDS started out being the lender buying insurance to protect against the loan they just wrote. Pretty much the same as Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) or those who know about mortgages. Lets say you buy a house with a mortgage; the lender usually make sure there is Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) that the borrower pays every month so that if the you default on the loan the bank get paid back the loan from the insurer.

Wall Streat to that a step further now where instead of just the lender having the PMI on your house, anyone can take out an insurance policy that you are going to default on your house payment and get paid the value of the mortgage if you defaulted. On Wall streat it was done with a pool of loans or even against the company that issued those loans. Now the person who wrote those insurance policies usually do their homework and calculate the risk of the person defaulting and charge a premium based on their model if they decided the person was worth the risk of insuring.

Here is a Youtube video that explains CDS some more with diagrams There are other videos there that give a little more or another perspective.

The SEC is saying that GS did not disclose to the insurance company that the people who they were selling the insurance policy to were the people who picked out what loans would be covered in the policy.

My argument is that this is totally irrelevant. The insurance company only needed to know what they were insuring to make their decision which they knew. The person buying the policy or the person who created the policy is not as relevant as what is being insured. The way I understand these CDS usually work is that someone wanted to make a loan and then they ask thier broker to shop for someone who would provide insurance for the loan. Thus the person wanting to buy the CDS was usually some involvment in the loan and/or the creation of the CDS.

We'll just have to see I guess what comes out of it.